By Luz Wendy T. Noble, Reporter
THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY is more likely to develop quicker than anticipated this yr, though China’s slowdown might be a draw back threat to the nation’s financial growth, MUFG Financial institution stated.
In a notice launched on Monday, MUFG stated it now expects Philippine gross home product (GDP) to increase by 6.5% this yr, from its earlier forecast of 6%.
That is nonetheless under the 7-9% goal set by financial managers.
MUFG Financial institution analyst Sophia Ng stated they’d be reviewing their progress outlook for the Philippines in view of the financial slowdown in China as a consequence of its zero-COVID coverage and strict lockdowns.
This might have a direct impression on the Philippines as a result of China is the nation’s largest buying and selling accomplice.
“A discount in demand from China could have a detrimental impression on the Philippines’ total export progress, and the provision crunch may also elevate import costs of products typically, leading to wider commerce deficits within the coming months,” Ms. Ng stated in an e-mail.
For the primary quarter, MUFG stated Philippine financial output probably expanded by 6.8%.
If realized, this may be slower than the 7.8% progress within the October to December interval, however would nonetheless mark the fourth consecutive quarter of progress for the economic system.
It additionally compares with a BusinessWorld ballot of 17 analysts that yielded a median estimate of 6.7% GDP progress for the primary three months.
First-quarter GDP knowledge will likely be launched on Could 12.
Ms. Ng stated their first-quarter GDP estimate took into consideration the slower rise in consumption as mobility restrictions had been tightened in the course of the Omicron surge in January.
Metro Manila and a few provinces had been positioned below Alert Stage 3 to include rising infections.
Restrictions had been eased to Alert Stage 2 by February, and to essentially the most relaxed Alert Stage 1 by March.
Ms. Ng stated one other issue that probably eased progress in January to March was the big drop in web exports as a consequence of an even bigger commerce deficit.
The commerce hole widened to $13.892 billion within the first quarter from the $8.345-billion deficit a yr earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority reported on Friday.
The Philippine economic system grew by 5.7% in 2021, after a report 9.6% contraction in 2020.