The Philippines holds an election on Monday for a brand new president, pitting incumbent Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” G. Robredo in opposition to Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., the son of a infamous dictator whose 20-year rule resulted in a 1986 rebellion.
Listed here are among the points at play:
HOW WOULD EACH CANDIDATE RULE?
Mr. Marcos is unlikely to rule like his authoritarian father, though strongman-style management may very well be anticipated.
This method proved in style underneath incumbent Rodrigo R. Duterte, who cultivated a picture as a ruthless, no-nonsense chief who acquired issues accomplished.
If elected, Mr. Marcos would in all probability use his household’s affect to consolidate energy by means of transfers, appointments and connections within the paperwork, judiciary and different key our bodies, changing potential obstacles with members of his in depth political community.
He may anticipate a extra favorable congress and senate than Mr. Robredo.
A Robredo victory would deliver a extra liberal method and concentrate on schooling, healthcare, poverty and gender equality, whereas strengthening establishments and oversight and boosting market competitors.
She has pledged to enhance social welfare, similar to unemployment advantages and household assist.
Nevertheless, a Robredo presidency would in all probability run into turbulence. She has already been a primary goal for hate and disinformation campaigns as a vp who dared to problem Mr. Duterte.
WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?
Neither candidate will advocate a big financial restructuring, although each have promised to prioritize pandemic restoration and will goal funding reforms, similar to reducing pink tape.
Ms. Robredo has pledged to extend funding to deal with local weather change, degree the taking part in area for enterprise and promote public-private partnerships.
Mr. Marcos has revealed little or no about coverage and has steered away from presidential debates and tough media interviews, specializing in a easy however ambiguous message of unity. Continuity with Mr. Duterte is anticipated, for instance on key infrastructure initiatives.
Some financial threat consultants have seen the next likelihood of corruption and nepotism underneath a Marcos presidency, nonetheless, and the scope for score-settling and retaliation in opposition to companies linked to the household’s opponents.
WHAT WOULD FOREIGN POLICY LOOK LIKE?
The Philippines’ longstanding ties to former colonial energy america are unlikely to be threatened by both candidate, having been regular by means of Mr. Duterte’s years of very public hostility in direction of Washington.
The protection alliance is essential for inner safety and navy functionality, and preserving it’s vital for a Philippine president’s relationship with the armed forces.
Mr. Marcos is seen because the candidate nearer to China and may gain advantage from its enterprise pursuits. He favors a two-way method that higher fits Beijing however will frustrate advocates of the multilateral method Ms. Robredo is prone to pursue.
Mr. Marcos has been pragmatic in recognizing the Philippines is not any match militarily, so a troublesome stance shouldn’t be anticipated. Ms. Robredo would oppose Chinese language provocations, and remind Beijing that a world arbitral courtroom ruling in 2016 invalidated most of its South China Sea claims.
WHAT HAS BEEN DUTERTE’S ROLE?
Mr. Duterte has had a testy relationship with Ms. Robredo however has been characteristically mercurial over Mr. Marcos, having each praised him and questioned his suitability to guide.
Mr. Duterte has not endorsed Mr. Marcos, or another candidate, however crucially he has not sought to maneuver in opposition to him or harm his repute.
A giant win for Mr. Marcos was securing the president’s daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, as his vice presidential operating mate, serving to him to soak up among the incumbent’s cult-like following, notably on social media, and draw new voters.
The dynamic of the 2 households has spurred hypothesis of a quid professional quo that helped safe the presidency for Mr. Duterte, who in flip smoothed the best way for Mr. Marcos.
Notable was Mr. Duterte publicly thanking politician and Mr. Marcos’s sister, Imee, for funding his marketing campaign — which she later dismissed as a joke. He additionally sometimes praised the late dictator and controversially allowed his physique to be moved to a “heroes” cemetery in Manila, after years of failed makes an attempt by the household.
HOW IMPORTANT IS SUCCESSION FOR DUTERTE?
Political vendettas are frequent within the Philippines and former presidents typically face authorized motion or are even jailed. Mr. Duterte has made a number of enemies.
Although they left no dent on his recognition, Mr. Duterte’s presidency was fraught with scandals involving allies or appointees, a few of which may re-emerge later.
Activists and lawyer teams blame Mr. Duterte for hundreds of alleged executions of drug pushers and customers throughout his warfare on medication and will launch authorized motion when he leaves workplace, or foyer the Worldwide Felony Courtroom to renew investigation.
Ms. Robredo has been a staunch critic of the president’s deadly strategies of combating medication and crime and can be extra prone to allow investigations into Mr. Duterte. However together with his daughter as vp and Mr. Marcos in cost, he can be nicely insulated. — Martin Petty/Reuters